No Fear of Freedom

February 22, 2004

Coming Attraction: Predictable Campaign Lie On Jobs

The Bush-Rove Perpetual Campaign Machine is already revving up the lie that the economy, especially the jobs picture, is much better than it appears. They're going to try to claim that the payroll survey is screwy so we should really trust the household survey. Only a couple a wee problems with that. Two Tales of American Jobs:

The puzzle is the enormous divergence between the two surveys that are used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to measure job creation and unemployment. The payroll survey, which is based on a monthly poll of 400,000 employers, shows a loss of more than two million jobs since 2001. The household survey, based on questions posed to people in 50,000 households, shows an increase of more than 500,000 jobs over the same period.

Those employers are big employers with lots of employees. Those households represent very few actual workers, relatively. The payroll survey uses a vastly larger sample. That's probably one reason why a big majority of economists consider the payroll survey more accurate. The Repukes prefer the household survey for a better reason, though. It makes Bush look better.

If the payroll survey is correct, Mr. Bush is on track to be the first president since Herbert Hoover to complete a term in office with fewer jobs than when he started. If the household survey is correct, Mr. Bush can claim credit for creating jobs despite the blows of a recession, terrorist attacks and two wars.

The first since Hoobert Heever! Thass purty bad. The payroll survey shows a loss of 2 million jobs under Boosh, the household survey shows a gain of half a million. Did I mention that the household survey is based on self-reporting? You always get the best info that way, cuz peebles always tells the troof. One prominent Republican economist had this to say:

"I wish I could say the household survey were the more accurate,'' Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, said in his testimony at a House hearing on Feb. 11. "Everything we've looked at suggests that it's the payroll data which are the series which you have to follow.''

I bet he does wish it. An' if wishes was fishes . . . The Fed made some adjustments to the household survey, and many of the jobs disappeared.

The good news for the job market is that both surveys are now pointing to increases in employment. The bad news is that, compared with previous economic recoveries, both measures suggest that job growth remains well below par.

They worked, dammit! The tax cuts worked! Well, if your rich, anyway. Don'tcha love readin' tha bidness section?

posted 7:32 AM by Phaedrus | Link | |

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